diff --git a/.claude/blackboard.md b/.claude/blackboard.md
index d3709b09..4aad00ba 100644
--- a/.claude/blackboard.md
+++ b/.claude/blackboard.md
@@ -1,3 +1,17 @@
+## 2026-10-08 — `PillarReport::deferred` + `certified()`; `Cascade::query` documents that Stroke 1 can drop true hits
+
+- **Pillars:** Pillar-15/16/17 run no probe but report `passed = true`. A gate on `passed` counted them as certified. `PillarReport` now has `deferred: bool` (true only for those three) and `certified() = passed && !deferred`. `print()` shows `DEFERRED`. `passed` keeps its meaning, so existing callers do not change.
+  - Breaking for code that builds `PillarReport` with a struct literal: add `deferred: false`. All 18 in-tree literals are updated.
+  - Pinned by `deferred_pillars_are_not_certified`: 12–14 certified, 15–17 deferred, and `deferred` agrees with `n_paths == n_hops == 0` on every report.
+- **Cascade:** `Cascade::query`'s Stroke 1 drops any candidate whose scaled prefix estimate exceeds `threshold + 3σ`. Nothing falls back to an exact check, so a hit within the threshold whose differing bits sit in the prefix is lost. This is how a statistical cascade works, so the behaviour stays. The doc now says recall is not guaranteed and that returned hits are exact.
+  - Pinned by `stroke1_drops_a_prefix_heavy_true_hit`: 400 bits in the prefix are dropped, the same 400 at the tail are kept, and 127 fillers keep the warm-up σ small.
+- **Disable runs, both red, both restored:**
+  - `certified()` returning `passed`;
+  - Stroke 1 also admitting `d <= threshold`.
+- **Also:** the `SplitMix64::new` doctest failed under `deny(warnings)` because of an unused `mut`. Fixed.
+- **Not fixed (pre-existing, unrelated):** clippy errors in `tests/splat3d_correctness.rs` under `--tests`.
+- **Source:** lance-graph board `2026-10-08-mexhat-bucket-cascade-probe.md`, which flagged both behaviours.
+
 ## 2026-10-08 — `PowerSums::checked_affine`, `CrossPowerSums::checked_affine`: power sums of an affine image from the sums alone
 
 - **New** (both in `src/simd_masking_ops.rs`, reached through `ndarray::simd`):
diff --git a/src/hpc/cascade.rs b/src/hpc/cascade.rs
index 46b7e341..de2e34fc 100644
--- a/src/hpc/cascade.rs
+++ b/src/hpc/cascade.rs
@@ -266,6 +266,16 @@ impl Cascade {
     }
 
     /// Run the full 3-stroke cascade query.
+    ///
+    /// **Approximate: recall is not guaranteed.** Stroke 1 scales the prefix
+    /// distance by `vec_bytes / s1_bytes` and drops any candidate whose
+    /// estimate exceeds `threshold + 3σ`. A candidate whose differing bits sit
+    /// mostly in the prefix is dropped even when its full distance is within
+    /// `threshold`; nothing falls through to an exact check. Strokes 2 and 3
+    /// are exact: every hit returned carries its true distance and is within
+    /// `threshold`. Vectors shorter than 128 bytes skip Stroke 1 and are exact.
+    /// For an exact scan, call [`crate::hpc::bitwise::hamming_distance_within`]
+    /// per candidate.
     pub fn query(&self, query: &[u8], database: &[u8], vec_bytes: usize, num_vectors: usize) -> Vec<RankedHit> {
         assert_eq!(query.len(), vec_bytes);
         assert_eq!(database.len(), vec_bytes * num_vectors);
@@ -790,6 +800,46 @@ mod tests {
             .collect()
     }
 
+    /// Stroke 1 is a statistical prune: a hit whose differences sit in the
+    /// prefix is dropped although its full distance is within the threshold.
+    /// The documented contract is "returned hits are exact", not "all hits
+    /// are returned". A change that makes Stroke 1 exact will flip this test.
+    #[test]
+    fn stroke1_drops_a_prefix_heavy_true_hit() {
+        let vec_bytes = 2048;
+        let threshold = 600;
+        let query: Vec<u8> = (0..vec_bytes).map(|i| (i as u8).wrapping_mul(37)).collect();
+        let mut database = Vec::new();
+        // Candidate 0: 400 differing bits, all in the stroke-1 prefix.
+        let mut v = query.clone();
+        for bit in 0..400 {
+            v[bit / 8] ^= 1 << (bit % 8);
+        }
+        database.extend_from_slice(&v);
+        // Candidates 1..128: the same 400 bits, all at the tail. They fill the
+        // 128-row warmup so the population sigma stays small.
+        let mut w = query.clone();
+        for bit in 0..400 {
+            w[vec_bytes - 1 - bit / 8] ^= 1 << (bit % 8);
+        }
+        let n = 128;
+        for _ in 1..n {
+            database.extend_from_slice(&w);
+        }
+        for c in database.chunks(vec_bytes) {
+            assert_eq!(bitwise::hamming_distance_raw(&query, c), 400);
+        }
+        let cascade = Cascade::from_threshold(threshold, vec_bytes);
+        let mut got: Vec<(usize, u64)> = cascade
+            .query(&query, &database, vec_bytes, n)
+            .iter()
+            .map(|r| (r.index, r.hamming))
+            .collect();
+        got.sort_unstable();
+        let expected: Vec<(usize, u64)> = (1..n).map(|i| (i, 400)).collect();
+        assert_eq!(got, expected, "Stroke 1 should drop candidate 0 and keep the rest");
+    }
+
     #[test]
     fn query_exact_strokes_respect_the_prefix_budget() {
         let (query, database, vec_bytes, expected) = straddling_database();
diff --git a/src/hpc/pillar/btsp_unbiased.rs b/src/hpc/pillar/btsp_unbiased.rs
index bcd63405..bd4f6eed 100644
--- a/src/hpc/pillar/btsp_unbiased.rs
+++ b/src/hpc/pillar/btsp_unbiased.rs
@@ -124,6 +124,7 @@ pub fn prove_pillar_16() -> PillarReport {
         psd_rate: 0.0,
         lognorm_concentration: 0.0,
         passed: true,
+        deferred: true,
     }
 }
 
diff --git a/src/hpc/pillar/cov_high_d.rs b/src/hpc/pillar/cov_high_d.rs
index 6d565ba3..dcf48c61 100644
--- a/src/hpc/pillar/cov_high_d.rs
+++ b/src/hpc/pillar/cov_high_d.rs
@@ -417,6 +417,7 @@ pub fn prove_pillar_9() -> PillarReport {
         psd_rate: clt_rate, // repurposed: stores CLT convergence rate
         lognorm_concentration: clt_rate,
         passed,
+        deferred: false,
     }
 }
 
diff --git a/src/hpc/pillar/ewa_sandwich_2d.rs b/src/hpc/pillar/ewa_sandwich_2d.rs
index 58b7317a..71e0ea78 100644
--- a/src/hpc/pillar/ewa_sandwich_2d.rs
+++ b/src/hpc/pillar/ewa_sandwich_2d.rs
@@ -226,6 +226,7 @@ pub fn prove_pillar_6() -> PillarReport {
         psd_rate,
         lognorm_concentration,
         passed,
+        deferred: false,
     }
 }
 
diff --git a/src/hpc/pillar/ewa_sandwich_3d.rs b/src/hpc/pillar/ewa_sandwich_3d.rs
index d6a8605f..512f2e7d 100644
--- a/src/hpc/pillar/ewa_sandwich_3d.rs
+++ b/src/hpc/pillar/ewa_sandwich_3d.rs
@@ -192,6 +192,7 @@ pub fn prove_pillar_7() -> PillarReport {
         psd_rate,
         lognorm_concentration,
         passed,
+        deferred: false,
     }
 }
 
diff --git a/src/hpc/pillar/hhtl_contraction.rs b/src/hpc/pillar/hhtl_contraction.rs
index ee10e57c..1fdd9c74 100644
--- a/src/hpc/pillar/hhtl_contraction.rs
+++ b/src/hpc/pillar/hhtl_contraction.rs
@@ -343,6 +343,7 @@ pub fn prove_pillar_13() -> PillarReport {
         psd_rate,
         lognorm_concentration,
         passed,
+        deferred: false,
     }
 }
 
diff --git a/src/hpc/pillar/koestenberger.rs b/src/hpc/pillar/koestenberger.rs
index 0d338f5b..4f826cec 100644
--- a/src/hpc/pillar/koestenberger.rs
+++ b/src/hpc/pillar/koestenberger.rs
@@ -285,6 +285,7 @@ pub fn prove_pillar_7_5() -> PillarReport {
         psd_rate,
         lognorm_concentration: max_err, // repurpose field: tracks max path-parity error
         passed,
+        deferred: false,
     }
 }
 
diff --git a/src/hpc/pillar/lattice_signature.rs b/src/hpc/pillar/lattice_signature.rs
index df7bb4b7..19521d80 100644
--- a/src/hpc/pillar/lattice_signature.rs
+++ b/src/hpc/pillar/lattice_signature.rs
@@ -505,6 +505,7 @@ pub fn prove_pillar_11_lattice() -> PillarReport {
         psd_rate: 1.0 - f64::from(leg.reduced_merged) / f64::from(leg.reduced_checked.max(1)),
         lognorm_concentration: f64::from(leg.false_merge_max_sep_level),
         passed,
+        deferred: false,
     }
 }
 
diff --git a/src/hpc/pillar/mexican_hat.rs b/src/hpc/pillar/mexican_hat.rs
index 2cf7d803..aa37e74c 100644
--- a/src/hpc/pillar/mexican_hat.rs
+++ b/src/hpc/pillar/mexican_hat.rs
@@ -117,6 +117,7 @@ pub fn prove_pillar_15() -> PillarReport {
         psd_rate: 0.0,
         lognorm_concentration: 0.0,
         passed: true,
+        deferred: true,
     }
 }
 
diff --git a/src/hpc/pillar/mod.rs b/src/hpc/pillar/mod.rs
index 799d7ed1..4ff2bb92 100644
--- a/src/hpc/pillar/mod.rs
+++ b/src/hpc/pillar/mod.rs
@@ -168,7 +168,8 @@ pub use tree_balance::prove_pillar_17;
 /// for r in &reports {
 ///     r.print();
 /// }
-/// assert!(reports.iter().all(|r| r.passed));
+/// // `passed` is also true for a deferred pillar; gate on `certified()`.
+/// assert!(reports.iter().filter(|r| !r.deferred).all(|r| r.certified()));
 /// ```
 pub fn run_substrate_tier() -> Vec<PillarReport> {
     vec![
@@ -203,6 +204,28 @@ mod tests {
         }
     }
 
+    #[test]
+    fn deferred_pillars_are_not_certified() {
+        // 12-14 run a probe; 15-17 are placeholders. A gate that reads
+        // `passed` alone counts all six as certified.
+        let reports = run_substrate_tier();
+        let certified: Vec<u8> = reports
+            .iter()
+            .filter(|r| r.certified())
+            .map(|r| r.pillar_id)
+            .collect();
+        let deferred: Vec<u8> = reports
+            .iter()
+            .filter(|r| r.deferred)
+            .map(|r| r.pillar_id)
+            .collect();
+        assert_eq!(certified, vec![12, 13, 14]);
+        assert_eq!(deferred, vec![15, 16, 17]);
+        assert!(reports
+            .iter()
+            .all(|r| r.deferred == (r.n_paths == 0 && r.n_hops == 0)));
+    }
+
     #[test]
     fn substrate_tier_is_deterministic() {
         // Two consecutive runs must produce identical reports.
diff --git a/src/hpc/pillar/ogit_lattice.rs b/src/hpc/pillar/ogit_lattice.rs
index 0caa7f14..80f545b4 100644
--- a/src/hpc/pillar/ogit_lattice.rs
+++ b/src/hpc/pillar/ogit_lattice.rs
@@ -336,6 +336,7 @@ pub fn prove_pillar_14() -> PillarReport {
         psd_rate,
         lognorm_concentration,
         passed,
+        deferred: false,
     }
 }
 
diff --git a/src/hpc/pillar/pflug.rs b/src/hpc/pillar/pflug.rs
index 9e552b3d..8e0d5990 100644
--- a/src/hpc/pillar/pflug.rs
+++ b/src/hpc/pillar/pflug.rs
@@ -178,6 +178,7 @@ pub fn prove_pillar_10() -> PillarReport {
         psd_rate: if passed { 1.0 } else { 0.0 },
         lognorm_concentration,
         passed,
+        deferred: false,
     }
 }
 
diff --git a/src/hpc/pillar/prove_runner.rs b/src/hpc/pillar/prove_runner.rs
index caa75531..e6a1a238 100644
--- a/src/hpc/pillar/prove_runner.rs
+++ b/src/hpc/pillar/prove_runner.rs
@@ -14,7 +14,7 @@
 //! let _v = rng.next_f32();
 //! let report = PillarReport {
 //!     pillar_id: 6, seed: SEED, n_paths: 10, n_hops: 5,
-//!     psd_rate: 1.0, lognorm_concentration: 0.0, passed: true,
+//!     psd_rate: 1.0, lognorm_concentration: 0.0, passed: true, deferred: false,
 //! };
 //! report.print();
 //! assert!(assert_psd_rate(10, 10, 0.999));
@@ -49,7 +49,7 @@ impl SplitMix64 {
     ///
     /// ```rust
     /// use ndarray::hpc::pillar::prove_runner::SplitMix64;
-    /// let mut rng = SplitMix64::new(0xDA5ADC5ADD);
+    /// let _rng = SplitMix64::new(0xDA5ADC5ADD);
     /// ```
     #[inline]
     pub const fn new(seed: u64) -> Self {
@@ -140,6 +140,7 @@ impl SplitMix64 {
 ///     psd_rate: 0.9997,
 ///     lognorm_concentration: 0.0023,
 ///     passed: true,
+///     deferred: false,
 /// };
 /// r.print();
 /// ```
@@ -159,18 +160,39 @@ pub struct PillarReport {
     /// Log-norm Frobenius concentration metric (pillar-specific semantics).
     pub lognorm_concentration: f64,
     /// `true` if all PASS criteria were met.
+    ///
+    /// A deferred pillar reports `passed = true` because the deferral is not
+    /// a failure. That makes `passed` alone unfit as a certification gate:
+    /// use [`PillarReport::certified`], which also requires that the probe ran.
     pub passed: bool,
+    /// `true` if no probe ran: the pillar is a placeholder waiting for the
+    /// kernel it certifies. Its numeric fields are zero and carry no evidence.
+    pub deferred: bool,
 }
 
 impl PillarReport {
+    /// `true` only if the probe ran and every PASS criterion held.
+    ///
+    /// This is the predicate a gate should use. `passed` is also `true` for a
+    /// deferred pillar, which measured nothing.
+    pub fn certified(&self) -> bool {
+        self.passed && !self.deferred
+    }
+
     /// Pretty-print the report to stdout in a deterministic, grep-friendly format.
     ///
     /// Output format:
     /// ```text
     /// [PILLAR-7] seed=0xEDA5ADC5ADD paths=1000 hops=10 psd_rate=0.9997 lognorm_conc=0.0023 PASS
     /// ```
+    ///
+    /// The status is `PASS`, `FAIL`, or `DEFERRED` (no probe ran).
     pub fn print(&self) {
-        let status = if self.passed { "PASS" } else { "FAIL" };
+        let status = match (self.deferred, self.passed) {
+            (true, _) => "DEFERRED",
+            (false, true) => "PASS",
+            (false, false) => "FAIL",
+        };
         // Use plain integer formatting for seed so the output is reproducible
         // across platforms (no locale-dependent float printing).
         println!(
@@ -431,11 +453,13 @@ mod tests {
             psd_rate: 0.9997,
             lognorm_concentration: 0.001,
             passed: true,
+            deferred: false,
         };
         assert!(r_pass.passed);
 
         let r_fail = PillarReport {
             passed: false,
+            deferred: false,
             ..r_pass.clone()
         };
         assert!(!r_fail.passed);
@@ -452,6 +476,7 @@ mod tests {
             psd_rate: 1.0,
             lognorm_concentration: 0.0,
             passed: true,
+            deferred: false,
         };
         // Two prints of the same report produce the same line (determinism).
         // We can't easily capture stdout in no_std, so we just assert it
diff --git a/src/hpc/pillar/signature.rs b/src/hpc/pillar/signature.rs
index 7fff48f2..51b1224c 100644
--- a/src/hpc/pillar/signature.rs
+++ b/src/hpc/pillar/signature.rs
@@ -412,6 +412,7 @@ pub fn prove_pillar_11() -> PillarReport {
         psd_rate,
         lognorm_concentration: concentration,
         passed,
+        deferred: false,
     }
 }
 
diff --git a/src/hpc/pillar/splat_invariants.rs b/src/hpc/pillar/splat_invariants.rs
index c45b1ce8..41a99c12 100644
--- a/src/hpc/pillar/splat_invariants.rs
+++ b/src/hpc/pillar/splat_invariants.rs
@@ -335,6 +335,7 @@ pub fn prove_pillar_12() -> PillarReport {
         psd_rate,
         lognorm_concentration,
         passed,
+        deferred: false,
     }
 }
 
diff --git a/src/hpc/pillar/temporal_sandwich.rs b/src/hpc/pillar/temporal_sandwich.rs
index cdaff36d..a30fb37e 100644
--- a/src/hpc/pillar/temporal_sandwich.rs
+++ b/src/hpc/pillar/temporal_sandwich.rs
@@ -301,6 +301,7 @@ pub fn prove_pillar_8_band(band: MotionBand) -> PillarReport {
         psd_rate,
         lognorm_concentration,
         passed,
+        deferred: false,
     }
 }
 
diff --git a/src/hpc/pillar/tree_balance.rs b/src/hpc/pillar/tree_balance.rs
index 8160c6e9..5e316448 100644
--- a/src/hpc/pillar/tree_balance.rs
+++ b/src/hpc/pillar/tree_balance.rs
@@ -118,6 +118,7 @@ pub fn prove_pillar_17() -> PillarReport {
         psd_rate: 0.0,
         lognorm_concentration: 0.0,
         passed: true,
+        deferred: true,
     }
 }