fix(router): learn from real token counts, show hedges, price in thinking tokens

apps/web/src/lib/router/engine.ts

@@ -64,8 +64,8 @@ export async function execute(args: {
     const signals = [args.signal, Number.isFinite(deadline) ? AbortSignal.timeout(Math.max(1000, remainingMs())) : undefined].filter(Boolean) as AbortSignal[];
     try {
       const r = await call(model, msgs, { maxTokens, temperature: opts.temperature, signal: signals.length ? AbortSignal.any(signals) : undefined });
-      const inTok = r.inTokens ?? inEst;
-      const outTok = r.outTokens ?? estimateTokens(r.text);
+      const inTok = r.inTokens || inEst; // 0 = not reported
+      const outTok = r.outTokens || estimateTokens(r.text);
       const m = price.get(model);
       const costUsd = m ? (inTok * m.priceIn + outTok * m.priceOut) / 1e6 : 0;
       spent += costUsd;
@@ -111,6 +111,8 @@ export async function execute(args: {
     }
     if (!canAfford(backup, f.promptTokens, 300)) return a;
     state.fired = true;
+    // Recorded now: the losing call may only settle after the receipt is built.
+    steps.push({ role: "hedge", model: backup, ok: true, ms: 0, inTokens: 0, outTokens: 0, costUsd: 0, note: `${model} had not answered after ${Math.round(hedgeMs)} ms; same request sent to ${backup}, first answer wins` });
     const b = run(backup, second, "fallback");
     const winner = await firstNonNull([a, b]);
     if (winner?.model === model) second.abort();
@@ -124,8 +126,8 @@ export async function execute(args: {
     const inEst = estimateTokens(messages.map((m) => m.content).join("\n"));
     try {
       const r = await call(model, messages, { maxTokens: opts.maxTokens, temperature: opts.temperature, signal });
-      const inTok = r.inTokens ?? inEst;
-      const outTok = r.outTokens ?? estimateTokens(r.text);
+      const inTok = r.inTokens || inEst; // 0 = not reported
+      const outTok = r.outTokens || estimateTokens(r.text);
       const m = price.get(model);
       const costUsd = m ? (inTok * m.priceIn + outTok * m.priceOut) / 1e6 : 0;
       spent += costUsd;

apps/web/src/lib/router/planner.ts

@@ -92,8 +92,13 @@ export function viewModels(models: ModelProfile[], f: Features, stats: Stats, op
       p *= 1 - Math.min(0.5, stats.errorRate(m.id));
       if (m.providers !== undefined && m.busy !== undefined && m.providers > 0 && m.busy >= m.providers) p *= 0.92;
       p = Math.max(0.01, Math.min(0.99, p));
-      const costUsd = (f.promptTokens * m.priceIn + out * m.priceOut) / 1e6;
-      const latencyMs = 400 + out * speedMsPerToken(m, stats) + f.promptTokens * 0.15;
+      // "Thinking" models write their reasoning out first: on anything but
+      // math/reasoning that is ~3x the tokens for the same answer (qwen3:4b
+      // took 200 s on "name three primary colors", 2026-11-12).
+      const thinks = m.tags.includes("reasoning") && f.category !== "math" && f.category !== "reasoning";
+      const mOut = thinks ? out * 3 : out;
+      const costUsd = (f.promptTokens * m.priceIn + mOut * m.priceOut) / 1e6;
+      const latencyMs = 400 + mOut * speedMsPerToken(m, stats) + f.promptTokens * 0.15;
       return { m, p, costUsd, latencyMs };
     })
     .sort((a, b) => b.p - a.p || a.costUsd - b.costUsd || a.m.id.localeCompare(b.m.id));

apps/web/src/lib/router/stats.ts

@@ -14,6 +14,8 @@ export const PRIOR_WEIGHT = 6;
 export const ERROR_STREAK_COOLDOWN = 3;
 export const COOLDOWN_MS = 2 * 60_000;
 const EWMA = 0.2;
+/** One observation counts as at most this slow (ms per output token). */
+export const MAX_SAMPLE_MS_PER_TOKEN = 400;
 
 export type QualityRow = { ok: number; fail: number };
 export type HealthRow = {
@@ -91,7 +93,9 @@ export class Stats {
       h.coolUntil = undefined;
       if (r.outTokens > 8) {
         // Split wall time into overhead + per-token cost with a fixed 400 ms overhead guess.
-        const per = Math.max(1, (r.ms - 400) / r.outTokens);
+        // Capped: a cold model load on a node (60-100 s once) must not
+        // read as the model's speed forever; EWMA does the rest.
+        const per = Math.min(MAX_SAMPLE_MS_PER_TOKEN, Math.max(1, (r.ms - 400) / r.outTokens));
         h.msPerToken = h.msPerToken === undefined ? per : h.msPerToken * (1 - EWMA) + per * EWMA;
         h.overheadMs = h.overheadMs === undefined ? 400 : h.overheadMs * (1 - EWMA) + 400 * EWMA;
       }

apps/web/src/lib/router/types.ts

@@ -100,7 +100,7 @@ export type RouteOptions = {
 
 export type Verification = { pass: boolean; score: number; issues: string[] };
 
-export type StepRole = "draft" | "verify" | "judge" | "escalate" | "critic" | "revise" | "fallback" | "synthesize";
+export type StepRole = "draft" | "verify" | "judge" | "escalate" | "critic" | "revise" | "fallback" | "synthesize" | "hedge";
 
 export type StepRecord = {
   role: StepRole;