O22 counterfactual verdict, R1 pin, ledger correction (CE64 as one wire contract)

.claude/board/AGENT_LOG.md

@@ -1,3 +1,9 @@
+## 2026-10-15 — ledger-correction batch: two Haiku harvest runs
+
+- Card `harvest-scout` over ndarray `src/hpc/*cascade*` + blackboard (O20): hits at `cascade.rs:270-276`, `:813`, blackboard `:84-90` read and confirmed; 0 wrong, 0 missed. Earlier in the session the doc scout returned counts without hits (one miss on that kind of task).
+- General-purpose on Haiku, PR bodies #1494–#1504 verbatim (N3): 11/11 fetched; merge SHAs absent from the fetch and taken from `git log`; 2 deletions counts missing. Bodies used as written; 0 wrong.
+- Cost: about 338k and 425k subagent tokens. No conclusion came from a card.
+
 ## 2026-10-14 — D-MTP-0 harvest: six substrate-mapper runs, one reply each
 
 - Card `substrate-mapper` (run as a general-purpose agent with the card pasted; the card is not registered in this session), six units: `hyperon-atom`, `hyperon-space`, the minimal-MeTTa interpreter, the grounded stdlib, lance-graph `nal`/`r2il`/`relalg`, `quack`.

.claude/board/PR_ARC_INVENTORY.md

@@ -174,6 +174,83 @@
 - **Confidence:** high for the flags; the CI regression is the caveat above.
 - **Correction (2026-10-13, from the full PR body and commit `12cdfde`):** the PR body's "every workflow sets `RUSTFLAGS` with an explicit `-C target-cpu=x86-64-v3`" was false: `dir-sim-persist.yml` and `identity.yml` set none, and that is where the SIGILL appeared. The wheel pin is not in the body; it came in the second commit `12cdfde` (Codex P1 on `make publish`), as did replacing the global Docker `ENV RUSTFLAGS` with `config-v3.toml` / `CARGO_TARGET_X86_64_UNKNOWN_LINUX_GNU_RUSTFLAGS` so arm64 builds are untouched (Codex P2). Not recorded before: the two thinking-engine images had been building at generic x86-64 (SSE2) and now build at v3.
 
+## 2026-10-12 — lance-graph PR #1504 (merged `c853cffa`, branch `ccr-9f3b8075-74u47l`, 12 commits) — D-CMH-1: class-qualified methods compile into Quack algebra, with no Rust per method
+
+- **Added:** `glove-parity/src/method.rs` (`MethodSpec`, `Glove`, `MethodTable`, `PreparedMethod`, `GroupSum`, `Law::NarsRevision`, `SchemaSeal` / `ReadingId` / `Universe`), `glove-parity/src/call.rs` (`resolve_call`), `examples/method_cost.rs`; R2IL `select_u32` + `count`; `POP_COUNT` / `SUM` / `GROUP_SUM` / `KEEP` read a resident plane as their mask. No new mask-risc or R2IL op.
+- **Locked:** a prepared method's `programs()` equals `lower(direct query)`; Quack, R2IL and a row loop agree at n ∈ {1, 64, 65, 4097}; `NarsRevision` matches OpenNARS's three reference revisions; repeated stamps leave truth unchanged. Cost on 1,048,576 rows (v3): method warm call 600 µs vs direct Quack 599 µs vs scalar loop 366 µs.
+- **Deferred / open:** `FirstOfRun` over an ordered key; retraction by semijoin (typed insufficiency today); three-valued conditions; method-key mint in OGAR (#357); compute-DAG at 256 positions (done in #1506); a fused filter + fold terminal.
+- **Confidence:** high; 13 disable runs red. Board entry `2026-10-12-class-method-polyfill-ledger.md`.
+
+## 2026-10-12 — lance-graph PR #1501 (merged `ec3fee7d`, branch `docs/class-method-hotplug-activation-rfc`, 7 commits) — docs: class-method HotPlug activation across Quack and R2IL (D-CMH-0)
+
+- **Added:** plans `class-method-schema-hotplug-v1.md` (D-CMH-0..12) and `class-method-hotplug-falsifiers-v1.md` (CMH-P01..P24); knowledge `class-method-hotplug-existing-contracts.md`; board entry D-CMH-0.
+- **Locked:** `ogar-loco::Inventory`, `VecInventory::push_keyed` and `Interpreter::with_inventory` already exist; the gap is their link to OGAR `MethodDecl`, Quack bindings and R2IL procedures. OGAR stays the only DO authority; one `mask-risc → ndarray` executor.
+- **Deferred / open:** where the `PreparedClass` sidecar lives (not in `lance-graph-contract`); implementation went to #1504.
+- **Confidence:** n/a (docs; no tests run).
+
+## 2026-10-12 — lance-graph PR #1499 (merged `060e8e63`, branch `docs/ce64-nars-evidence-primary-excerpts-20261012`, 2 commits) — docs: NARS internal evidence, fission and snapshot excerpts (follow-up #1496)
+
+- **Added:** `.arxiv/2026-10_nars_self_epistemic_needs_evidence_primary_excerpts.md` (Wang, Li & Hammer 2018; Jøsang 2007; Goertzel 2021) and a board entry.
+- **Locked:** nothing; five proposed red tests (same observation in two layers must not raise confidence; contributor removal; separate source / derivation / attention roles; version-k fold replays during k+1 append; appraisal ablation never rewrites truth).
+- **Deferred / open:** all five tests unrun.
+- **Confidence:** n/a (docs).
+
+## 2026-10-12 — lance-graph PR #1500 (merged `f746e634`, branch `docs/rubicon-gollwitzer-volition-research-20261012`, 3 commits) — docs: Rubicon volition source excerpts and falsifiable agent mapping (D-RV-0..9)
+
+- **Added:** `.arxiv/2026-10_rubicon_gollwitzer_volition_source_excerpts.md` (9 sources) and plan `rubicon-volition-v1.md` (D-RV-0..9).
+- **Locked:** NARS and CE64 evidence never become desire or action authority; bits 59..63 are not reassigned to volition.
+- **Deferred / open:** the A–E falsifier (deliberate each step / committed goal / + if-then / + counterfactual revision and disengagement / + mental contrasting) unrun; OGAR ActionDef / ONA / RIG mapping pending a source census.
+- **Confidence:** n/a (docs).
+
+## 2026-10-12 — lance-graph PR #1498 (merged `c73acbc2`, branch `docs/hyperon-metta-to-lg-parity-20261012`, 3 commits) — docs: Hyperon/MeTTa → lance-graph semantic projection and fold parity
+
+- **Added:** `.arxiv/2026-10_hyperon_metta_to_lance_graph_parity_map.md` (HY-Q01..15, candidate lowering matrix) and a board entry.
+- **Locked:** a row mask representing two matching rows is not equivalent to `b4_nondeterm.metta`'s four alternatives; a column SUM does not prove a metagraph fold law.
+- **Deferred / open:** upstream interpreters not run; later taken up as D-MTP (#1553).
+- **Confidence:** n/a (docs).
+
+## 2026-10-12 — lance-graph PR #1497 (merged `e323b918`, branch `docs/opencog-pln-shannon-entropy-research-20261012`, 3 commits) — docs: OpenCog PLN × Shannon attention research map and falsifiers
+
+- **Added:** `.arxiv/2026-10_opencog_pln_shannon_attention_research_map.md` (OC-Q01..13) and a board entry.
+- **Locked:** NARS frequency and PLN strength are not silently read as calibrated probabilities; PLN priority, ECAN and Staunen/Moore are three mechanisms.
+- **Deferred / open:** the scheduler swap (FIFO / confidence / naive Shannon / EIG / Moore-Staunen at fixed rules and budget) unrun.
+- **Confidence:** n/a (docs).
+
+## 2026-10-12 — lance-graph PR #1503 (merged `60255ec6`, branch `ccr-0455e606-wmtsor`, 1 commit) — dir-sim: membership path witness and role evidence before/after
+
+- **Added:** `membership_path` / `membership_path_through` → `MembershipPath` (BFS, shortest chain, lowest ordinal on ties); `GroupRoles::role_evidence` → `Held` / `NotHeld` / `Undetermined { unread }` / `NotDeclared`; `RoleImpact::between`. Identity CI runs dir-sim with `--features rbac`.
+- **Locked:** each version is decided on its own, so an alternative chain is not a loss; `is_lost` / `is_gained` need a known `NotHeld` on the other side; roles come only from read, declared grants.
+- **Deferred / open:** which policy version granted a role; device memberships; proposal export.
+- **Confidence:** high; 11 tests, 7 disable runs red.
+
+## 2026-10-12 — lance-graph PR #1502 (merged `40409589`, branch `ccr-0455e606-wmtsor`, 4 commits) — docs: policy baseline plan (GPO, Intune, Linux) and visualization prompts (D-PBL-0..7)
+
+- **Added:** plan `policy-baseline-integration-v1.md` (D-PBL-0..7: configured / assigned / observed kept apart; read-only encoders in `ogar-ad` / `ogar-az`; GPO↔CSP mapping read as data) and `visualization-prompts-v1`.
+- **Locked:** GPO has no central observed state, so a GPO column never shows drift.
+- **Deferred / open:** everything past D-PBL-0 waits on the operator (setting key, home crate, Linux source).
+- **Confidence:** n/a (docs).
+
+## 2026-10-12 — lance-graph PR #1496 (merged `349e63af`, branch `ccr-9f3b8075-74u47l`, 9 commits) — docs: CE64 hypothesis-layers plateau, plans D-HL-0..10 and D-NALP-0..11, research map
+
+- **Added:** `.claude/knowledge/ce64-reasoning-substrate-plateau.md`, plans `ce64-hypothesis-layers-v1.md` (D-HL-0..10) and `nal-polyfill-v1.md` (D-NALP-0..11), `.arxiv/2026-10_ce64_hypothesis_layers_research_map.md`, board rows.
+- **Locked:** no stored bit changes meaning; 8 design-vs-code disagreements recorded, each with the decision it needs (bits 46..49 opcode vs activation; 50..52 plasticity; 10 rung lanes, not 64; overlay rows discarded, not persisted).
+- **Deferred / open:** D-HL-1 operator decisions; per-class reading of 40..63 (H-1) — withdrawn 2026-10-15 by the wire-contract ruling (`entries/2026-10-15-ledger-correction-wire-contract.md`).
+- **Confidence:** n/a (docs).
+
+## 2026-10-12 — lance-graph PR #1495 (merged `43000203`, branch `ccr-9f3b8075-74u47l`, 6 commits) — NAL-1..9 × 34 recipes audit: MCP receipt probe, revision laws against OpenNARS (D-NAL-MCP-0, D-NAL-REV-0)
+
+- **Added:** `planner/tests/mcp_receipt_probe.rs`, `planner/tests/nal_revision_oracle.rs`, `.claude/knowledge/nal-recipe-audit/` (34-row recipe table, 115-row NAL inventory, schedule-depth scan, Narsese fixture, Java runner).
+- **Locked:** MCP (recipe 10) cannot tell a calibrated past from an overconfident one (`wave_dispatch.rs` discards `run_recipes`); revision paths A/C/D/E match 3/3 OpenNARS points, B1 (replay) 0/3, B16 2/3, `grammar::revise_truth` 0/3; 64 of 256 masks schedule at depth 2.
+- **Deferred / open:** D-NAL-RCPT-1 (a receipt a recipe can read), design only.
+- **Confidence:** high; 8 disable runs red.
+
+## 2026-10-11 — lance-graph PR #1494 (merged `3f8d13c4`, branch `ccr-b2e415d9-4jfvyk`, 8 commits) — planner: residue fixed point + Maslov Pyramid of Cognition probe (D-RESIDUE-FP-0, D-MATURATION3-0)
+
+- **Added:** `planner/tests/residue_fixed_point.rs`, `planner/tests/maturation_ladder.rs`, `.claude/knowledge/maslov-pyramid-of-cognition.md`, two board entries. No production code.
+- **Locked:** `pearl::hydrate` reaches a fixed point (extra passes bit-identical; only bits 59..60 change); derived relations carry their parents' root union and add none; two paths from one observation count 2, not 4; cycles cannot ground themselves; `mature` 1.99–2.83 ns median, 0 allocations.
+- **Deferred / open:** production feedback needs D2 provenance ids; recipe-output → stage mapping; the stage reading of bits 50..52 (ruled 2026-10-15: the pyramid IS the plasticity ladder, pending a global version gate).
+- **Confidence:** high; 14 disable runs red (2 residue, 12 maturation).
+
 ## 2026-10-09 — lance-graph PR #1432 (merged `d29d0aa`, branch `ccr-edc85bd9-89tiwe`, head `669fc42`, 7 commits) — D-SCF-CARE-PAIR-0: crossing counterfactuals, pairwise nogoods, folded chain relations
 
 - **Added:** `cognitive-shader-driver/examples/crossword_crossing_care_probe.rs` (`test = true`; 10 tests) over the unchanged `shared/crossword_core.rs`: letter support, single- and two-crossing counterfactuals, pairwise nogoods, existential elimination of internal slots into a canonical reusable 31×31 count relation.

.claude/board/STATUS_BOARD.md

@@ -124,7 +124,7 @@ Plan: `.claude/plans/nal-polyfill-v1.md`. Template: D-SQLP. No opcode, tenant or
 
 | D-id | scope | status | gate / falsifier |
 |---|---|---|---|
-| **D-NALP-0** | Plan, board rows | In PR | docs only |
+| **D-NALP-0** | Plan, board rows | Shipped (#1496) | docs only |
 | **D-NALP-1** | Statement layout + declared ClassView reading; additive `WideFieldMask` projection path on `ClassView`; binder's mask; term width decision | Partial: #1525 merged `08635ed` (NodeGuid reading `nal-statement-v1`, term width u16, aperture selection); ClassView wide projection and binder mask Queued | only the mask's lanes are read; undeclared reading and masked-out field refuse; Small = Wide answers |
 | **D-NALP-2** | Query procedures: select, truth threshold, choice by confidence, support count | Shipped #1525 `08635ed` (`crates/lance-graph-nal`: NodeGuid key, byte apertures; 7 oracle tests, 7 disable runs red; 19–248 ns at 1,048,576 rows); support count and argmax not built | equal to a row-at-a-time oracle; one-pattern threshold disable red; no new opcode |
 | **D-NALP-3** | Revision as `GroupCrossPowerSumsI32` over stored `w`/`f` | Shipped #1538 `4ceaab3` (`nal::Revision`, key = evidence class from the stamps; refuses overlap and missing provenance; 11 tests, 7 disable runs red; ONA's mid-fold saturation is a documented divergence, the fold keeps the exact sum) | equal to exact integer revision; OpenNARS revision points; duplicate evidence counts once |
@@ -143,7 +143,7 @@ Plan: `.claude/plans/ce64-hypothesis-layers-v1.md`. Plateau: `.claude/knowledge/
 
 | D-id | scope | status | gate / falsifier |
 |---|---|---|---|
-| **D-HL-0** | Plateau, plan, research map, board entry | In PR | docs only; every claim cites a file or entry |
+| **D-HL-0** | Plateau, plan, research map, board entry | Shipped (#1496) | docs only; every claim cites a file or entry |
 | **D-HL-1** | Decisions O1 (46..49), O2 (50..52), O3 (W), O5 (lane budget), O6 (what persists) | Queued (operator) | stored-meaning changes ship behind a version gate |
 | **D-HL-2** | Merge-on-read vs in-place revision | Queued | merge-on-read within 1 code of exact on every cell where in-place is not; ≥ 1 cell differs by ≥ 2 codes |
 | **D-HL-3** | Per-delta evidential base as the independence test (layer ≠ source) | Queued | sd ratio within 10 % of 1.0 on all four cases, incl. a cross-layer duplicate (counts once) and two independents in one layer (count twice); a layer-keyed rule must fail those two |
@@ -170,6 +170,16 @@ Plan: `.claude/plans/policy-baseline-integration-v1.md`.
 | **D-PBL-6** | Console projection; empty where no source | Queued | each cell names its source |
 | **D-PBL-7** | Linux source | Parked (D-PBL-0) | — |
 
+## D-RESIDUE-FP / D-MATURATION3 — hydrate fixed point and the Maslov pyramid (2026-10-11)
+
+Knowledge: `.claude/knowledge/maslov-pyramid-of-cognition.md`. Test-only (#1494).
+
+| D-id | scope | status | gate / falsifier |
+|---|---|---|---|
+| **D-RESIDUE-FP-0** | `planner/tests/residue_fixed_point.rs`: production `pearl::hydrate` to a fixed point | Shipped (#1494) | extra passes bit-identical; only bits 59..60 change; 2 disable runs red |
+| **D-MATURATION3-0** | `planner/tests/maturation_ladder.rs`: stages 7..0, feedback, ablation, no self-support | Shipped (#1494) | 12 disable runs red; the stage reading of 50..52 is test-local |
+| **D-MATURATION3-1** | The pyramid as the plasticity ladder in bits 50..52, one global meaning | Queued (operator) | needs a global version gate for old codes; `learn`, `MooreNars16` and `CausalEdgeV3` byte 3 move in lockstep |
+
 ## D-NAL — NAL-1..9 × 34 recipes against OpenNARS and ONA (2026-10-11)
 
 Audit: `.claude/knowledge/nal-recipe-audit/README.md`. Entry:

.claude/board/entries/2026-10-15-ledger-correction-wire-contract.md

@@ -0,0 +1,29 @@
+# 2026-10-15 — Ledger correction: CE64 is one wire contract; first counterfactual verdict
+
+**Status:** DECISION (operator rulings R-a..R-e) + TEST-PINNED (O22, R1).
+
+`.claude/research/2026-10-recovery/LEDGER-CORRECTION-2026-10-15.md` corrects
+the 2026-10-14 ledger revision.
+
+- **DECISION:** CausalEdge64 is a global wire format and ISA register; every
+  header bit means the same thing everywhere. K1 (per-class readings of
+  40..63) is withdrawn. Bits 40..42 = method (Pearl), 50..52 = the plasticity
+  ladder (the Maslov pyramid), 59..63 = licence. SCOPE: every CE64 producer and
+  reader. REVISIT WHEN: a measured case needs two meanings for one bit.
+- **O25** is a defect with a known fix: replay composes within a trajectory;
+  revision runs only across distinct `temporal.rs` coordinates. K2 narrows to
+  that coordinate as the provenance root.
+- **O22 done (one step):** `pearl::Reaction::verdict`,
+  `Measured::counterfactual_verdict`; the first end-to-end
+  `RevisionVerdict::is_acceptable()`. 3 disable runs red.
+- **R1 pinned** in `kanban.rs`; disable run red.
+- **Closed:** O20 (ndarray `1ecbccb`), N10 (clippy clean on `main`), N3/N4.
+- **O26 downgraded:** `causal_bridge` sits behind a `wip` feature that does
+  not compile; the mapping cannot reach a caller.
+- **N15:** Pearl × Wang NAL S-P × OpenNARS, ONA, PLN, Jøsang, Hyperon/MeTTa as
+  views on the one wire; home D-HOLO H12.
+
+53..58 is already the witness handle in code (`w_slot`).
+
+OPEN: 46..49 meaning; per-tenant vs global readings in `docs/architecture/ce64-semantic-upper-half.md`; the derived-packet rule; the ladder's entry
+code; `learn`'s rule; the migration gate for old codes 1..6; O23.

.claude/board/entries/README.md

@@ -25,10 +25,11 @@ index row, (3) no duplicate entry id. Checks 1 and 2 are deliberately
 opposite directions; the stranding this convention prevents shows up in
 exactly one of them, never both.
 
-334 entries, 2026-08-06 .. 2026-10-14.
+335 entries, 2026-08-06 .. 2026-10-15.
 
 | date | entry id | finding | file |
 |---|---|---|---|
+| 2026-10-15 | `ledger-correction-wire-contract` |  | [2026-10-15-ledger-correction-wire-contract.md](2026-10-15-ledger-correction-wire-contract.md) |
 | 2026-10-14 | `revision-layer-invariants` |  | [2026-10-14-revision-layer-invariants.md](2026-10-14-revision-layer-invariants.md) |
 | 2026-10-14 | `D-MTP-0` | where Hyperon/MeTTa attaches to the masking-algebra polyfill | [2026-10-14-metta-polyfill-map.md](2026-10-14-metta-polyfill-map.md) |
 | 2026-10-14 | `ledger-revision-after-1553` |  | [2026-10-14-ledger-revision-after-1553.md](2026-10-14-ledger-revision-after-1553.md) |

.claude/knowledge/maslov-pyramid-of-cognition.md

@@ -89,6 +89,7 @@ Going round a grounded cycle adds nothing.
 | anchor ablation measures dependence (impact 2 on the chain) | EXPERIMENTAL (probe) |
 | an anchor turns a neutral observation into new Astonishment; the anchor stays at 0 | EXPERIMENTAL (probe) |
 | `mature`: ~2–3 ns median, 0 allocations (release, one container) | MEASURED |
-| bits 50..52 carry the code in production | BLOCKED — they are plasticity (`learn`, `MooreNars16`, `CausalEdgeV3`) |
+| bits 50..52 carry the code in production | DECISION 2026-10-15: the pyramid IS the plasticity ladder (how free an edge still is to change), not a second field beside it. ⊘ was "BLOCKED — they are plasticity". Pending: one global version gate, since the bits are a wire contract read the same everywhere; `learn`, `MooreNars16` and `CausalEdgeV3` byte 3 move in lockstep (D-MATURATION3-1) |
+| per-plane granularity (S/P/O hot flags in today's encoding) | belongs to the SPO mask (40..42, Pearl method), not to the ladder |
 | production feedback | BLOCKED — needs D2 provenance ids |
-| bit migration and where plasticity lives | CONTRACT DECISION (operator) |
+| entry code, `learn`'s rule, migration of codes 1..6 | OPEN (operator); see `entries/2026-10-15-ledger-correction-wire-contract.md` |